Intranational risk sharing and its determinants, Journal of International Money and Finance 2015, 51(1), pp.89-113 (with Chun-Yu Ho, Wai-Yip A. Ho).

国际风险分担及其决定因素。《国际货币与金融杂志》，2015 年，第51(1)期（与 Chun-Yu Ho、Wai-Yip A. Ho合著）

Abstract：

We develop a model of risk sharing in which agents can pool their consumption risks in both national and local markets and then smooth the remaining consumption fluctuations with credit markets. Estimating the model with a unique dataset on Chinese cities, we find that the participation rate in risk sharing is low, but upon entering the market, agents tend to pool risk in the national market rather than the local market. The welfare gain from reaching the perfect consumption risk sharing at the national market could be as large as 4% of the perpetual deterministic consumption flow. However, conditional on the estimated degree of risk sharing participation, the welfare gain from pooling all income risks at the national market is only 0.1%. Empirical analysis on the determinants of city risk sharing reveals that the degree of risk sharing depends on initial economic development and share of GDP contributed by tertiary industry.

摘要：

笔者建立了一项风险分担模型，代理人可以将其在全国和本地市场的消费风险集中起来，然后通过信贷市场来消除剩余的消费波动。通过使用一套中国城市的专属数据集对模型进行估计，笔者发现风险分担的参与率较低，但在进入市场后，代理人倾向于将风险集中在全国市场而不是本地市场。如果在全国市场上达到完美的消费风险分担，所带来的福利收益可能高达永久确定性消费流的 4%。然而，以风险分担参与程度的估计为条件，在全国市场集中所有收入风险的福利收益仅为 0.1%。城市风险分担决定因素的实证分析表明，风险分担程度取决于初始经济发展和第三产业所贡献的GDP份额。

 

Consumption fluctuation and welfare: Evidence from China, World Development, 2010, 38(9): 1315-1327 (with Chun-Yu Ho, Wai-Yip A. Ho) 

消费波动与福利：来自中国的证据。《世界发展》，2010年，38(9)期，1315-1327页（与 Chun-Yu Ho、Wai-Yip A. Ho合著）

Abstract：
This paper examines inter-provincial consumption risk sharing and intertemporal consumption smoothing across Chinese provinces before and after the 1979 economic reform. Our results indicate that the degree of consumption risk sharing among Chinese provinces is lower than that within the United States and across the national boundaries of OECD countries. On the other hand, the level of consumption smoothing among Chinese provinces is higher than that across OECD or European Union countries, but lower than that in the United States. Moreover, our results show that consumption risk sharing and smoothing in China have deteriorated since the 1979 economic reform. Finally, we show that eliminating consumption fluctuations yields substantial welfare gains, which suggests that stabilization policies are desirable for China.

摘要：

本文考察了 1979 年经济改革前后中国各省的跨省消费风险分担和跨期平滑消费情况。研究结果表明，中国各省之间的消费风险分担程度低于美国及其他经合组织国家。另一方面，中国各省之间的平滑消费水平高于经合组织或欧盟国家，但低于美国。此外，本文研究结果表明，自 1979 年经济改革以来，中国的消费风险分担和平滑度有所恶化。最后，笔者发现消除消费波动会产生可观的福利收益，这表明稳定政策对中国是有利的。 

Divergence and Spatial Dependence of Chinese Cities, Review of Development Economics, 2010 (14): 386-403 (with Chun-Yu Ho)

中国城市的差异与空间依赖，《发展经济学评论》，2010年，14期，386-403页（与Chun-Yu Ho合著）

Abstract：
This paper analyzes the evolution of urban output per capita across Chinese cities in post-reform era. Our results suggest no evidence of output convergence across cities from 1984 to 2003.We find that cities with comparable output per capita are likely to be located in the same region; furthermore, cities tend to mirror the mobility of their counterparts located in the same province, but not the same region. The divergence in urban output per capita across the nation will continue if the current economic growth pattern persists in the future.

摘要：

本文分析了改革开放后中国各城市人均城市产出的演变。研究结果显示，没有证据能表明 1984至2003年间各城市的产出趋同。笔者发现，人均产出水平相似的城市较大程度上位于相同地区；此外，位于同一省份的城市产出的变化趋势相似，而位于同一地区而非同一省份的城市并没有相似的变化趋势。如果保持当前的经济增长模式，未来全国城市人均产出的差异将继续持续。

The nexus of income and size distribution of Chinese cities, 1984-2003, Applied Economics Letters ,2009,16(17): 1677-1682 (with Chun-Yu Ho)

中国城市收入与规模分布的关系。《应用经济学快报》，2009年，16（17）期, 1677-1682页（与Chun-Yu Ho合著）

Abstract：

We estimate the distribution dynamics of city income and size in China during 1984-2003 using stochastic kernel. Our results show that intra-distribution mobility is significant in both income and size and provide evidences on China experienced internal brain drain.

摘要：

笔者使用随机内核模型（stochastic kernel）估算了1984-2003年间中国城市收入和规模的分布动态。研究结果表明，内部分配的流动性在收入和规模上都很显著，本文为衡量中国内部人才从欠发达地区流向发达地区的流动提供了论证。