Silver, fiduciary money, and economic performance in China: 1890-1935, Review of International Economics 2022, 30(4), pp.939-70 (with Bo Chen and Yiqing Xie).

白银，信用货币与中国的经济表现：1890-1935，《国际经济评论》，2022年，第30（4）期，937-70页 （与Bo Chen and Yiqing Xie合著）

Abstract：

There are debates in the existing literature over whether silver outflows from China due to the American Silver Purchase Act (ASPA) of 1934 resulted in an economic crisis in China. However, all arguments in the debate rely on the assertion that the ASPA caused severe deflation – a claim with weak support in the data. In this paper, we investigate the bigger picture by using a newly consolidated historical Chinese dataset covering 1890 to 1935 to investigate the long-run relationship of silver outflows, international trade and fiduciary money. We find a mitigation effect of terms of trade after a decrease in the silver price triggered silver outflows from 1890 to 1934. More importantly, we find that the issue of fiduciary money was responsive to silver outflows such that China’s aggregate money supply was not severely affected by the outflows. As a result, we clarify the puzzle of why China encountered neither serious deflation nor an economic crisis when the ASPA occurred.

摘要：

现有文献中存在关于1934年美国白银购买法案 (ASPA)所引致的白银流出是否导致中国出现经济危机的一些争论。然而，讨论中所有的论点基于以下推断：ASPA 造成了严重的通货紧缩——尽管这个论断在数据上只有很勉强的支撑。在本文中，我们从当时的全球局势出发，通过使用新的、整合的并且涵盖1890-1935年的中国历史数据来研究白银流出、国际贸易与信用纸币的长期关系。我们发现，在1890-1934年间，每当银价下降引发白银流出后，贸易条件（terms of trade）的变动会对此起到缓解作用。更重要的是，我们发现，信用纸币的发行对白银流出是会做出反应的，因此中国的货币总供给并没有受到白银流出的严重影响。因此，我们解释了为什么ASPA实施后，中国既没有遭遇严重的通货紧缩，也没有遭遇严重的经济危机的困惑。

Money and the Macro-economy in China from 1800 to 1937, Chapter 7, Cambridge Economic History of China, Vol 2, Edited by Debin Ma & Richard von Glahn, 2022, Cambridge University Press (with Hongzhong Yan).

中国货币与宏观经济：1800-1937。《剑桥中国经济史（第二卷）》，第七章，2022年，剑桥大学出版社（与Hongzhong Yan合著）

Abstract：

This chapter introduces major aspects and transformations of the Chinese monetary system and its impact on China’s macro economy during 1800-1937. It first presents the main nature of Chinese major currencies of copper, silver and paper money and details the evolution and changing importance of the three media of exchange during this period. To illustrate the monetary transformation, it next shows three case studies of competition and cooperation between the government and private sector in the money market when enduring a series of internal and external shocks. It finally discusses the impact of the monetary transformation on China’s macro economy during this period.

摘要：

本章主要介绍了 1800至1937 年中国货币体系的概况和变革，以及对中国宏观经济产生的影响。本章首先阐释中国主要货币铜、银和纸币的性质，并详细介绍了这一时期三种交换媒介的演变及其重要性的变化。为进一步说明货币转型过程，本文形象展示在遇到一系列内外冲击时，政府与私营部门在货币市场上开展的竞争与合作的三个案例。最后，本章讨论了这一时期货币转型对中国宏观经济所产生的影响。

Move in the right place at the right time: The economic consequence of Manchuria 1910-11 plague on migrants，Explorations in Economic History, 2017, 63, pp. 91-106 (with Nan Li).

在适当的时机移民适当的地点：1910-1911 年满洲瘟疫对移民的经济影响。《经济史探索》，2017年，63期，91-106 页（与 Nan Li合著）

Abstract：
Using household survey data for Manchuria (Northeast China) from the 1930s, we measure the economic return to the “luck” of moving to the right place at the right time. Manchuria was hit by a devastating pneumonic plague epidemic in 1910/11. Employing a differences-in-differences method, we find that the migrants who moved to plague-hit villages (rather than non-plague-hit villages) right after the plague ended prospered most: they owned 90% more land than those who failed to do so. Our results hold after controlling for other factors that influence the wealth of migrants and survive various robustness checks. Moreover, no evidence is found that those who made a good move “outsmarted” those who did not. Our findings confirm that the opportunities in a receiving locality encountered by lucky migrants have long-term welfare implications for them.

摘要：

最初到达目的地时的当地状况如何影响移民后续的经济福利？满洲（中国东北）在 20 世纪上半叶吸引了数百万华北移民。1910-1911期间，该地区爆发了毁灭性的肺炎性鼠疫。借助20世纪30年代中期农村住户调查的数据，笔者探讨了各村庄瘟疫后状况如何影响移民群体的长期财富积累。研究发现，在瘟疫结束后不久就搬到瘟疫灾区的移民家庭与在瘟疫爆发之前或爆发很久之后迁往同一村庄以及迁往非瘟疫区的移民家庭相比，他们拥有的土地至少多出112%。通过控制影响移民长期财富积累的因素，该研究结果是稳健的。也没有证据显示在瘟疫不久后就移民到瘟疫区的移民是其自主性的选择。因此，该研究结果并不受内生性问题的困扰。我们的研究证明移民地的初始经济状况的确对移民的后续经济福利有长久的影响。

A mirror of history: China’s bond market 1921-1942, Economic History Review，2014, 67(2), pp. 409-434 (with Chun-Yu Ho).  

历史之镜：1921-1942中国债券市场。《经济史评论》，2014年，67(2)期，409-434页（与Chun-Yu Ho合著）

Abstract：
This article provides a quantitative assessment of contemporary beliefs about historical events by econometrically identifying ‘break points’ in China’s domestic bond market from 1921 to 1942.We find that these ‘break points’ usually coincided with the events highlighted by the Shanghai Newspaper—an influential daily newspaper produced during the time of the Republic of China. These events are also generally considered to be crucial by historians—for example, the Japanese invasion of Manchuria and the outbreak of the Second Sino-Japanese War. However, some events to which historians attach great importance, such as the conflicts between Nationalists and Communists in the 1930s, were not reflected in the bond market and did not attract much media attention. Some events, such as the Sino-Japanese ceasefire in Tanggu in 1933, were thought to be crucial by contemporaries, but have been downplayed by later observers.

摘要：

本文通过计量经济学确定了1921至1942年间中国公债市场的价格“断点”，并对“断点”与当时的历史事件进行匹配。笔者发现这些“断点”通常与《申报》所强调的重大事件相吻合。这些事件也通常被历史学家认为是至关重要的，例如日本入侵满洲和第二次抗日战争的爆发。然而有一些历史学家相当重视的事件并没有在债券市场中反映出来，也没有引起太多的媒体关注，比如30 年代国共冲突。还有一些被当时的人们认为是至关重要的大事，却被后来观察者所淡化，例如1933 年中日塘沽停战等。量化历史研究给我们提供看待历史的一个新角度。

Railway development and military conflicts in prewar China, Eurasia Geography and Economics, 2014, 54(5-6), pp.500-516.

战前中国铁路发展与军事冲突。《欧亚地理与经济》，2014年，第54（5-6）期，第500-516页

Abstract：

China suffered from numerous military conflicts throughout the first half of the twentieth century. These conflicts are thought to have slowed the pace of economic development; however, the magnitude of their negative impact remains unclear. This paper studies the effect of militarism on the railway industry, one of the most important modern industries at the time. I study these alleged impacts by using a new panel data-set linking archival data for China’s national railways to information on military conflicts for the period from 1916 to 1932. My results show that conflicts that occurred within 5 km of a railway reduced the railway’s current profitability by about 10%. Moreover, this negative impact persisted for years but to a lesser extent. However, conflicts that occurred beyond 5 km from a railway had no significant impact on the railway’s profitability. I also find that wars did not influence the net investment of national railways directly, but likely reduced investment indirectly by diminishing their profits. My findings suggest that militarism had a substantial but geographically limited impact on the profitability of railways and that the uncertainties created by warfare were not significant enough to drive national railways into disinvestment.

摘要：

整个二十世纪上半叶，中国境内爆发大量军事冲突。人们普遍认为，这些冲突减缓了经济发展的步伐；然而，其负面影响的程度仍未知。本文研究这些军事活动对铁路工业的影响，这是当时最重要的现代工业之一。笔者通过一套新的面板数据研究了这些影响。该数据收集了国家铁路的档案数据与1916至1932年间的军事冲突信息。研究结果显示，在铁路附近5公里范围内发生的冲突，降低了铁路盈利能力的10%左右，这种负面影响持续了多年，但程度有所减轻。然而发生在铁路5公里以外的冲突，对铁路盈利能力没有显著影响。笔者还发现，战争并没有直接影响国家铁路的投资净额，但通过降低利润的方式可能间接地减少了投资。笔者的研究表明，军事活动对特定地理区域的铁路的盈利能力产生了影响，但战争造成的不确定因素也不足以驱使国家铁路撤资。

Intranational risk sharing and its determinants, Journal of International Money and Finance 2015, 51(1), pp.89-113 (with Chun-Yu Ho, Wai-Yip A. Ho).

国际风险分担及其决定因素。《国际货币与金融杂志》，2015 年，第51(1)期（与 Chun-Yu Ho、Wai-Yip A. Ho合著）

Abstract：

We develop a model of risk sharing in which agents can pool their consumption risks in both national and local markets and then smooth the remaining consumption fluctuations with credit markets. Estimating the model with a unique dataset on Chinese cities, we find that the participation rate in risk sharing is low, but upon entering the market, agents tend to pool risk in the national market rather than the local market. The welfare gain from reaching the perfect consumption risk sharing at the national market could be as large as 4% of the perpetual deterministic consumption flow. However, conditional on the estimated degree of risk sharing participation, the welfare gain from pooling all income risks at the national market is only 0.1%. Empirical analysis on the determinants of city risk sharing reveals that the degree of risk sharing depends on initial economic development and share of GDP contributed by tertiary industry.

摘要：

笔者建立了一项风险分担模型，代理人可以将其在全国和本地市场的消费风险集中起来，然后通过信贷市场来消除剩余的消费波动。通过使用一套中国城市的专属数据集对模型进行估计，笔者发现风险分担的参与率较低，但在进入市场后，代理人倾向于将风险集中在全国市场而不是本地市场。如果在全国市场上达到完美的消费风险分担，所带来的福利收益可能高达永久确定性消费流的 4%。然而，以风险分担参与程度的估计为条件，在全国市场集中所有收入风险的福利收益仅为 0.1%。城市风险分担决定因素的实证分析表明，风险分担程度取决于初始经济发展和第三产业所贡献的GDP份额。

Consumption fluctuation and welfare: Evidence from China, World Development, 2010, 38(9): 1315-1327 (with Chun-Yu Ho, Wai-Yip A. Ho) 

消费波动与福利：来自中国的证据。《世界发展》，2010年，38(9)期，1315-1327页（与 Chun-Yu Ho、Wai-Yip A. Ho合著）

Abstract：
This paper examines inter-provincial consumption risk sharing and intertemporal consumption smoothing across Chinese provinces before and after the 1979 economic reform. Our results indicate that the degree of consumption risk sharing among Chinese provinces is lower than that within the United States and across the national boundaries of OECD countries. On the other hand, the level of consumption smoothing among Chinese provinces is higher than that across OECD or European Union countries, but lower than that in the United States. Moreover, our results show that consumption risk sharing and smoothing in China have deteriorated since the 1979 economic reform. Finally, we show that eliminating consumption fluctuations yields substantial welfare gains, which suggests that stabilization policies are desirable for China.

摘要：

本文考察了 1979 年经济改革前后中国各省的跨省消费风险分担和跨期平滑消费情况。研究结果表明，中国各省之间的消费风险分担程度低于美国及其他经合组织国家。另一方面，中国各省之间的平滑消费水平高于经合组织或欧盟国家，但低于美国。此外，本文研究结果表明，自 1979 年经济改革以来，中国的消费风险分担和平滑度有所恶化。最后，笔者发现消除消费波动会产生可观的福利收益，这表明稳定政策对中国是有利的。 

Divergence and Spatial Dependence of Chinese Cities, Review of Development Economics, 2010 (14): 386-403 (with Chun-Yu Ho)

中国城市的差异与空间依赖，《发展经济学评论》，2010年，14期，386-403页（与Chun-Yu Ho合著）

Abstract：
This paper analyzes the evolution of urban output per capita across Chinese cities in post-reform era. Our results suggest no evidence of output convergence across cities from 1984 to 2003.We find that cities with comparable output per capita are likely to be located in the same region; furthermore, cities tend to mirror the mobility of their counterparts located in the same province, but not the same region. The divergence in urban output per capita across the nation will continue if the current economic growth pattern persists in the future.

摘要：

本文分析了改革开放后中国各城市人均城市产出的演变。研究结果显示，没有证据能表明 1984至2003年间各城市的产出趋同。笔者发现，人均产出水平相似的城市较大程度上位于相同地区；此外，位于同一省份的城市产出的变化趋势相似，而位于同一地区而非同一省份的城市并没有相似的变化趋势。如果保持当前的经济增长模式，未来全国城市人均产出的差异将继续持续。

The nexus of income and size distribution of Chinese cities, 1984-2003, Applied Economics Letters ,2009,16(17): 1677-1682 (with Chun-Yu Ho)

中国城市收入与规模分布的关系。《应用经济学快报》，2009年，16（17）期, 1677-1682页（与Chun-Yu Ho合著）

Abstract：

We estimate the distribution dynamics of city income and size in China during 1984-2003 using stochastic kernel. Our results show that intra-distribution mobility is significant in both income and size and provide evidences on China experienced internal brain drain.

摘要：

笔者使用随机内核模型（stochastic kernel）估算了1984-2003年间中国城市收入和规模的分布动态。研究结果表明，内部分配的流动性在收入和规模上都很显著，本文为衡量中国内部人才从欠发达地区流向发达地区的流动提供了论证。

An empirical analysis of household choices on housing and travel mode in Boston, Annals of Regional Science, 2010, 45(2): 423-438 (with T.R. Lakshmanan, Chun-Yu Ho and William P. Anderson)

波士顿家庭住房和出行方式选择的实证分析 《区域科学年鉴》，2010年，45(2)期，423-438页（与 T.R. Lakshmanan、Chun-Yu Ho 、William P. Anderson合著）

Abstract：
We study household choices on the housing type and travel mode in Boston in the year 1991.We first develop a theoretical model for an integrated analysis of housing and travel mode choices, which implies that people with higher income level tend to live farther away from the Central Business District, enjoy more spacious housing and travel with a speedier mode. Logit estimation methods are employed to analyze the 1991 Boston Household Survey data. Our empirical results provide indirect confirmation of the theoretical model.

摘要：

本文研究了 1991 年波士顿家庭对住房类型和出行方式的选择。笔者首先建立了一个理论模型来综合分析住房和出行方式的选择，模型显示收入水平较高的人群通常住在离中央商务区更远的地方，享受更宽敞的住房和更快的出行方式。本文使用了Logit 评估方法分析 1991 年波士顿家庭的调查数据，其实证结果亦间接证实了理论模型。

Rising regional income inequality in China: Policy regimes and structural changes, Papers in Regional Science, 2008,87(2): 245-259 (with Chun-Yu Ho)

中国区域收入不平等上升：政策体制与结构变化 《区域科学论文集》，2008年，87(2)期，245-259页（与Chun-Yu Ho合著）

Abstract：
Regional inequality is severe in China since regional development is uneven due to various initial conditions and government policies. We employ unit root tests allowing for structural breaks to alternative inequality measures from 1952 to 2000. Empirical results indicate that (1) the regional inequality is trend stationary with structural breaks rather than following a random walk. Thus, ignoring structural changes might leads to incorrect inference and misleading policy implications; (2) the break points are associated with episodic events in Chinese economic history such as the Cultural Revolution and market reforms. This implies that the policies had a long-lasting and fundamental effect on the inequality.

摘要：

由于各种初始条件和政府政策导致区域发展不平衡，中国出现严重的区域收入差距现象。笔者采用允许结构性断点的单位根检验方法分析了1952至2000年间的关于收入不平等的不同衡量指标。实证结果表明：第一，区域不平等时间序列呈现趋势稳定但具有结构性断点的特性，并非随机游走的。因此，忽视结构性断点可能会导致错误的推断和误导性的政策；第二，断点与中国经济史上的发生事件有关。这意味着这些政策对不平等现象产生了长期的根本性影响。

Interregional productivity variations in Chinese manufacturing and mining industry, Applied Economics Letters, 2008, 15(14):1073-1077  

中国制造业和采矿业的区域间生产率差异，《应用经济学快报》，2008年，15(14)期，1073-1077页

Abstract：
A shift-share model is employed to analyze the interregional productivity variations in Chinese manufacturing and mining industry. Our empirical results show that sector productivity difference is huge; surprisingly, the most productive coastal regions are found to be specialized in low productive sectors; the inland provinces suffer a uniform productivity lag, which suggests policies geared to increase regional productivity, such as infrastructures and human capital, are crucial to close the productivity gap between the inland and the coast.

摘要：

本文采用了偏离份额分析模型（shift-share model）分析中国制造业和采矿业的区域间生产率的差异。实证结果表明，部门生产率差异巨大；出乎意料的是，生产力最高的沿海地区反而专长于低生产力部门；内陆省份的生产力普遍滞后。这表明提高区域生产力的政策对于缩小内陆和沿海地区的生产力差距至关重要，如基础设施和人力资本建设。

Teacher team-based incentives: Evidence from a natural experiment in a Chinese middle school, Singapore Economic Review 2021, pp. 1-37 (with Kaiwen Leong, Huailu Li and Yuchen Xie)

基于教师团队的激励：以一所中国中学的自然实验结果为例。 《新加坡经济评论》，2021年，1-37页（与 Kaiwen Leong、Huailu Li和Yuchen Xie合著）

Abstract：

Using a natural experiment, we examine the causal effect of a team incentive scheme on teachers in a Chinese middle school that intended to help the school’s students improve in their weak subjects. The scheme was successful, the average treatment effect is positively significant in math and total scores. The most improvement observed in top students’ weak subjects. The top students weak in math, English and social science improved in those subjects by 0.12, 0.10, 0.16 standard deviations, respectively. Students at the bottom 20% of the testing distribution also improved in Chinese and math.

摘要：

通过自然实验，我们研究了一所中国中学的教师团队激励方案所产生的因果效应，该方案旨在帮助本校学生提升薄弱科目。该方案获得了成功，从平均治疗效果来看，在数学学科和总分上具有明显正面效应。其中，在优等生的薄弱科目中所观察到的进步最为显著，优等生在数学、英语和社会科学这三个薄弱科目中分别提高了0.12、0.10和0.16 个标准差。在测试中位于后20% 的学生也在语文和数学科目上有所提升。

Price volatility and tracking ability of ETFs, Journal of Asset Management 2009(10): 210-221 (with Jack W Aber and Luc Can). 

ETF的价格波动和跟踪能力。《资产管理杂志》，2009年，第10期，第210-221页（与 Jack W Aber、Luc Can合著）

Abstract：
In this paper, we examine the price volatility and tracking ability of four iShares exchange-traded funds (ETFs). We use three measures: the premium and discount position, daily return, and tracking error, compared with conventional index mutual funds tracking the same index. Our results indicate that the ETFs are more likely to trade at a premium than at a discount, with comparatively large daily price fluctuations; and that both fund types have approximately the same degree of comovement with their benchmarks, but differ slightly in their tracking ability. On average, the Vanguard conventional index funds beat their corresponding iShares competitors in terms of tracking error.

摘要：

在本文中，笔者研究了四支iShares交易型开放式指数基金（ETF）的价格波动和跟踪能力。笔者使用了三个衡量指标：溢价和折价头寸（premium and discount position）、每日收益、跟踪误差，并与跟踪同一指数的常规指数共同基金进行了比照。结果表明，ETF 更有可能以溢价交易而非折价交易，每日价格波动相对较大；并且这两种基金类型与其基准的联动程度大致相同，但跟踪能力略有不同。总的来说，在跟踪误差方面，Vanguard 传统指数基金击败了其竞争对手 iShares。

第六章，《中国经济》， 吴中伟，胡文华主编《中国概况》，复旦大学出版社，2021 （与张晓蓉，刘永生合著）

摘要：

该章节主要是以生动活泼的语言为国际学生介绍中国经济的发展历程。首先，笔者回顾了中国古代经济的发展，接着介绍了中华人民共和国的经济发展和成就；最后，着重介绍了中国经济在改革开放之后实现腾飞的原因以及将来面临的挑战。

《历史“大数据”：民国证券市场之量化研究》, 北京大学出版社，2016

引言：

当代中国历史可谓是一部中华民族向西方学习以求寻得复兴之路的奋斗史。金融行业的现代化无疑是中国人向西方学习的重要产物之一，其中最重要的包括内国新式银行的出现及证券交易所的设立。内国新式银行的出现和壮大第一次使得普通民众可以以有限的资金参与金融市场(即小额储蓄),享受到金融服务。并且，这些现代的内国银行把旧中国十分有限的资本集中起来，贷款给新式企业，为近代中国的工业化做出了巨大贡献。学者们对于新式银行在中国近代经济史上所起的积极作用都是有目共睹的，而且一般都予以积极肯定。

而对于证券交易所在中国的设立，学者以持负面评价者居多。原因有三，第一是在证券交易所出现之初，即在1921年，上海就出现了“信交风潮”，大量交易所及信托公司设立又很快倒闭，许多人因投机交易所而破产。另外，投机性也是证券交易所存在的特征之一。因此许多学者认为交易所成为了满足中国人的“赌博性”而设立的另类赌场；其二，证券交易所的目的之一是成为企业进行融资的金融市场。然而，民国时期在证券交易所上市的公司聊聊无几，而所谓的“股票”也更类似于带有固定利率的公司债券。在证券交易所进行流通的主要是政府债券，因此其成为民国政府的公债市场，而不是企业的融资场所；其三，由于意识形态不同，新中国成立之后的大陆历史学者认为成为国民党政府的公债市场理所当然比较“邪恶”，它的壮大不但促进整体利率“上升”从而使得私有企业融资成本提高，而且国民政府从市场所筹得的资金，当然会有一部分用于对付毛泽东同志所领导的中国共产党的活动。

作者在美读博期间，对民国的金融市场产生了浓厚的研究兴趣，尤其是对证券交易所及其后演变成公债市场情有独钟，因此投入了大量的时间和精力去研究这种新型的金融组织形式在中国近代的发展。本书的写作目的并非是进入有关证券交易所对中国近代经济发展起着积极还是消极作用的定性分析，从而得出一些赞成或反驳前人在相关领域的研究结论。作者的写作目的是通过收集大量在证券交易所上交易的标的物的价格及交易量数据，并对这些数据进行量化分析及结合前人的定性研究，以期能有一些新的发现。这些新的发现不仅限于反映证券市场尤其是公债市场自身的发展，作者期望，这些发现也能给我们提供一个新的视角来审视中国近代史。

第五章《内战的经济学分析》, 陈波主编的教材《国防经济学前沿专题》，经济科学出版社，2010

摘要：

内战远多于国家间的战争，特别是在近几十年中，内战的发生更是频繁。内战对国家经济发展造成极大的破坏，而战乱更是造成国民流离失所、民不聊生。本专题从理论和实证角度对内战进行经济学分析。第一节讨论内战的基本概念和国际社会内战的一般事实；第二节讨论内战的起因和后果；第三节讨论内战的持续周期；第四节讨论战后重建。